2010 Election Senate Rundown (as in, the Republicans are Running Down the Democrats)

It's my favorite season of the year, when a chill forms in the air to compensate for all the heated rhetoric coming from campaign commercials. It's election season, and it's not going to be pretty for Democrats.

The conventional wisdom (as of September 28, 2010) is that the Republicans will probably take control of the House of Representatives but that Democrats will hold on to power in the Senate. But since all politics, even Republican-wave elections, are local, a closer inspection of the polls and the trends is warranted. And, shit, it's not like any other site on the internet is doing this.

Every seat in the House of Representatives is up for reelection, of course, and while the premise that the Republicans will easily take the chamber over may be overblown, I'm not going to question it for now. But the Senate is analyzable, so I shall analyze it.

There are 37 seats up for reelection (20 Democrat-held and 17 Republican-held). Subtracting these from the current configuration of the Senate gives us our baseline:

39 Dem
24 Rep

Now let's add in safe seats. For Republicans, there are an awful lot of safe seats.
RED STATE INCUMBENTS

Coburn-OK
Thune-SD
Crapo-ID
Grassley-IA
Isakson-GA
DeMint-SC
Burr-NC
Shelby-AL
McCain-AZ
Vitter-LA

All are incumbents who will breeze through to another term, even scandal-plagued David Vitter of Louisiana.

39 Dem
34 Rep

There are fewer safe Democrats
BLUE STATE INCUMBENTS

Wyden-OR
Inouye-HI
Schumer-NY
Leahy-VT
Mikulski-MD
Gillibrand-NY

45 Dem
34 Rep

Oh, but there are more safe seats for Republicans.
RED STATE NEWBIES.

Lee-UT
Hoeven-ND
Moran-KS
Coats-IN

In these four states, relatively unknown candidates face each other in the general election. In red states like Utah, North Dakota, Kansas and Indiana, this generally favors the Republican, and polls back this assumption up.

45 Dem
38 Rep

FAILED MONKEY WRENCHES

Miller-AK
Rubio-FL

In both of these states, the Tea Party overthrew the establishment Republican, and the establishment Republican decided to go it alone with an independent candidacy (Crist of Florida) or a write-in campaign (Murkowski of Alaska). The typical result of intra-party squabbling is that the other party comes in (Democrats in this case) and sweeps up the vote. That won't happen this time: both Rubio and Miller are leading handily in the polls despite the monkey-wrench candidacies of Murkowski and Crist.

45 Dem
40 Rep

DEMOCRATS FADING FAST

Ayotte-NH
Portman-OH

Both of these purple states had open seat races that were considered to be close at one point. The Republican in each case has now opened up a lead in the polls consistently greater than 10 percentage points.

45 Dem
42 Rep

DEMOCRATS FADING SLOW

Blumenthal-CT

Richard Blumenthal, who once enjoyed a 30 point lead over all Republicans, is now just 5 points ahead of his Republican challenger for Chris Dodd's seat. Will the lead last? I kinda sorta think so in this blue state, but it's not like Blumenthal is the perfect candidate. All I know about him is that he claimed he served in active combat duty in the military when he didn't really. And that's not the kind of thing you want to be known for.

46 Dem
42 Rep

THE LEFT COAST

Boxer-CA
Murray-WA

Both of these blue state incumbents have challenging reelections ahead of them, and both have been surprisingly free of Tea Party turmoil. Both Democrats are leading in the polls, but not by all that much.

48 Dem
42 Rep

OZARK TH'OWDOWN

Blunt-MO
Boozeman-AR

Blanche Lincoln, Democrat Senator of Arkansas, will be the first Democratic incumbent to fall on election night. She has been consistently down in the polls despite her attempts to sever herself from the Democratic establishment. It's a little different in Missouri, where a well-known popular Republican will simply beat a less well-known less popular Democrat.

48 Dem
44 Rep

The rest of the races are tossups really.

THE SURPRISINGLY STRONG

Johnson-WI
Toomey-PA

Millionaire Ron Johnson is just an average guy from Wisconsin, he'll tell you in his campaign ads, but he's polling extremely well against "mavericky" Democratic senator Russ Feingold. Republican Pat Toomey hasn't trailed in a poll against Arlen Spector-beating Democrat Joe Sestak since May.

48 Dem
46 Rep

THE TEA PARTY EFFECT

Buck-CO
Angle-NV
Paul-KY

All three candidates have said crazy things. All three candidates are Tea Party insurgents. All three candidates were expected to be the easier opponent for Democrats than the Republican establisment candidates. And all three candidates are leading (just barely) in the polls. If all three get elected, it will be a bad night for Democrats. I'm predicting a bad night for Democrats.

48 Dem
49 Rep

THE WHY ISN'T THIS GUY LEADING BY MORE STATE

Manchin-WV

Extremely-popular Democratic governor Joe Manchin threw his hat into the ring for the seat of the deceased extremely-popular Democratic senator Robert C. Byrd, and it was expected to be a landslide for him. But he hasn't polled as well as expected against a perennial candidate named John Raese; Manchin is only up by about 5 points, and it's possible he may lose. I sort of doubt it though.

49 Dem
49 Rep

HOLD YOUR NOSE AND PULL THE LEVER

Kirk-IL

Two scandal plagued candidates go up against each other. The democrat is a sleazy banker named Alexi Giannoulias, and the Republican is a confirmed liar named Mark Kirk. They have been tied in the polls for months, but Kirk is slightly ahead in almost every poll.

49 Dem
50 Rep

The last senate seat left to be discussed is Delaware.

THE SARAH PALIN EFFECT

Christine O'Donnell looks like Sarah Palin, says ridiculous things like Sarah Palin, and is backed by Sarah Palin. She is skilled at playing the "look how the mainstream media persecutes me, the outsider" card. This is an excellent way of not having to explain yourself or the charges against you. It was thought that it would be a landslide for balding low-profile candidate Chris Coons, but since the primary, O'Donnell is closing in the polls, down by 9 points from 16 a couple of weeks ago. People love celebrity. So therefore my guess is:

Coons-DE

I mean, come on, she's ridiculous.

50 Dem
50 Rep

VP Biden will break all ties and keep the Senate in Democratic hands, at least until Joe Lieberman switches parties for good.

Memo to Tea Party: Stop Sucking

I want to understand Tea Party sentiment, because I think there are some morsels of good ideas hidden deep within their murky bowl of freedom chowder.

In the broadest sense, the Tea Party is a coalition of people who clamor for balanced budgets and elimination of wasteful government spending, and who also believe that government action should be within the bounds of the Constitution. I can actually get behind this idea. It's when the Tea Party folks use specifics, like eliminating the Department of Education, allowing health insurance companies to sell policies practically without regulation, and recklessly lowering taxes that are already low that I start to disagree. It's when the Tea Party folks use inflammatory language, like a desire to "firebomb" the Fed, that they turn me against them. It's when the Tea Party leaders lie about facts like the economic state of Social Security (it is after all fully funded) and mischaracterize certain politicians' stances, like calling Obama a socialist that I start to rally against them. And it's when Tea Party leaders dabble in social issues like gay rights and religious freedom issues that I find them unconscionably reckless and a danger to our society.

This is why it's easy to characterize the Tea Party as an angry white conservative mob blinded by hatred for outsiders and driven by sensationalism of cable news and AM radio. They are a divisive group, and their popularity stems from anger, a potent political emotion. Their specific policies would undoubtedly be bad for the country as a whole. But if in some alternate universe the Tea Party stood only for balanced budgets and responsible government, I could see extraordinary benefits from a tolerant group of tax-paying citizens who would push an agenda of control of government expenditures. They could act as a vigilant watchdog group, which could push for a more transparent government. Their political candidates could focus on the economy and be spokesmen and women for the benefits of conservation, austerity and efficiency.

But unfortunately we live in this universe and not some alternative version of it. Tea Party candidates are known for making radical statements that wouldn't help anything, like that non-discrimination laws are unconstitutional, that Americans would be better off if Social Security and Medicare were eliminated, and that Obama is either a socialist or a Muslim Nazi without a U.S. birth certificate, and he's trying to steal your money. And I don't see how it helps the country to put inflammatory liars into political office.