Thursday, October 30, 2014

Senate predictions: October 30, 2014

Democrats will probably not be winning this Senate election in 2014. There are too many blue lines below the x-axis (8) and too few above (1). Even if I were to be wrong about this prediction (extremely likely), the next two closest races are Georgia and Alaska. In Georgia, a win in November's election for Michelle Nunn just delays the likely runoff win in January's runoff by David Perdue. And polls in Alaska have a history of overstating Democrats' strength. It wouldn't be too surprising if the median poll spread next Tuesday shows Democratic senator Mark Begich with a small lead, but since 2000, Alaska's polls have shown a 7.2 percentage point bias towards Democrats.

As this is supposed to be an Oklahoma blog, I should say something about the elections for both U.S. Senators and all the state offices in Oklahoma: Republicans will win everything by huge margins. Lankford, Inhofe and Fallin will cruise by huge margins, and the Oklahoma Democratic Party will continue to wallow in obscurity and penury for the foreseeable future.  That is all.

Here are today's median poll numbers.