Monday, September 24, 2007

My Presidential Guarantee

I've been telling my dad this for months, so I'll go ahead and say it here. I'm going to guarantee that a Republican will win the 2008 presidential election.

I think it's really a pipe dream that we Democrats cling to that the Democratic nominee could really appeal to the majority of the country. It seems to me that whoever wins the Democratic nomination will be seen as too liberal by the center of the country. Barack Obama actually is too liberal, while Edwards and Clinton are merely perceived as too liberal. Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani is loved by all who remember September 11, even if he is a New Yorker. McCain is always called "the maverick", even though he's the hawkiest candidate of the bunch. Even political hack Mitt Romney has gone from one side to the other and might be seen as some kind of centrist to people who don't pay attention to things, i.e., Americans.

In other words, the Democratic candidates are mostly perceived as "too liberal", even if they're not, while the Republican candidates are mostly perceived as "centrist", even if they're not. Like my dad has frequently said, if it comes to a choice between "Hillary Clinton" and "Satan", he'd rather choose Satan himself. I fear that he's not alone in his viewpoint.

- QP


Jacob said...

As a betting man, whenever I read someone "guarantee" something, my eyes perk up. What odds will you give me, Steve, and what are you willing to wager?

Steve said...

Well, Intrade is giving the equivalent of about 5/2 odds. I'd take those.

Jacob said...

Wait a minute...

So after guaranteeing the Republican nominee will win, you offer me the same odds as someone who's forty-percent sure the Republican nominee will win? What confidence.

(Yes, I realize Intrade isn't a "someone" choosing odds, but a market.)

Steve said...

A guarantee is a guarantee, regardless of odds. I was just finding you a betting forum.

Jacob said...

Still, I figure someone guaranteeing me something would give me something closer to 10,000-to-1 odds. You're positive it's going to happen...why turn down free money from me?

Besides, I don't want to wake up on a November Wednesday next year with an unfortunate election result AND an obligation to pay Intrade money. I'd rather pay it to someone I know and like.

Steve said...

Why turn down free money from you? I know you ain't got none.

If you're serious, I'll give you 5:1 odds on a Democrat winning in '08, with a max bet of $20 because we're both poor. The 80% confidence / 20% hedge shall be known as the Mitt-factor, 'cause most everyone knows he's a putz.

Jacob said... that's more like it.

Actually, I'll bet you a six-pack of your choice (at even odds). This way there's a chance I'll come out to Oklahoma again (or at least Arkansas City, Kansas) sooner rather than later.

Steve said...

It's a deal. And in the unlikely event that I lose, I'll just have to buy you a six-pack when I'm actually visiting you in NYC, unless your favorite beer comes almost exclusively in mostly-silver cans.