Well, Dixville Notch already voted, so I guess I'd better make official predictions. My method predicts 303 electoral votes for Obama (actually 294 with a tie in Colorado, but I'll wager that Colorado goes blue) and 54 senate seats for Democrats.
- I didn't add polling data from the states shaded gray in my database -- either due to no polls, no credible polls, me being lazy and not adding in uncompetitive states, or not wanting to deal with three-way senate races (MD, ME) -- so the spread I'm forecasting in those states is just my best guess.
- I'm predicting Oklahoma will not be the most conservative presidential-voting state this year. I predict those "honors" will belong to Utah this year.
- My official guess will be based on spread, not Obama's total or Romney's total.
And the senate races. There's a huge gap between the 58th senate seat (Nebraska) and the 59th (Texas). If Democrats manage to upend polling convention by 20 points, opening up holes to long-established mathematical laws and basically breaking the entire field of statistics, they still will only get 58 seats. Also, no way do I think Ted Cruz will only get 52% of the vote, and even a 20.5% victory seems low.